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Estimated daily, confirmed before you see it.",{"_type":77,"asset":1633},{"_ref":1634,"_type":52},"image-a4b1b6299b85ca42721393a787094b7edb3fc0ff-270x270-png","https:\u002F\u002Fcdn.sanity.io\u002Fimages\u002F44estrf6\u002Fproduction\u002Fa4b1b6299b85ca42721393a787094b7edb3fc0ff-270x270.png","en","See live what moves the needle. Without assumptions.","Causal Intelligence · StakeholderWatch",{"defaultTabLabel":1640,"dragLabel":1641,"expandLabel":1642,"minimiseLabel":1643},"about","drag","Expand","Minimise",{"_createdAt":16,"_id":1624,"_rev":1385,"_system":1645,"_type":1647,"_updatedAt":1390,"ariaLabel":1648,"clockInitial":1649,"clockTemplate":1650,"groups":1651,"heading":1723,"hint":1724,"infoBoxTab":1725,"lensAriaLabel":1726,"lensLabel":1727,"lenses":1728,"paragraphs":1740,"runButtonLabel":1743,"runningLabel":1744,"sim":1745,"statusLabels":1760,"theme":1614},{"base":1646},{"id":1624,"rev":1388},"societySection","One society: every stakeholder talks to every other; departments each see one corner of the same network","day 0","week {week}, day {day}",[1652,1658,1663,1667,1671,1675,1678,1681,1685,1688,1691,1694,1698,1702,1705,1708,1711,1714,1717,1720],{"_key":1653,"_type":1654,"depts":1655,"key":1653,"name":1653},"customers","stakeholderGroup",[1656,1657],"marketing","sales",{"_key":1659,"_type":1654,"depts":1660,"key":1659,"name":1659},"employees",[1661,1662],"hr","comms",{"_key":1664,"_type":1654,"depts":1665,"key":1664,"name":1664},"investors",[1666],"ir",{"_key":1668,"_type":1654,"depts":1669,"key":1668,"name":1670},"news-media",[1662],"news media",{"_key":1672,"_type":1654,"depts":1673,"key":1672,"name":1674},"job-seekers",[1661,1656],"job seekers",{"_key":1676,"_type":1654,"depts":1677,"key":1676,"name":1676},"suppliers",[1657],{"_key":1679,"_type":1654,"depts":1680,"key":1679,"name":1679},"regulators",[1662,1666],{"_key":1682,"_type":1654,"depts":1683,"key":1682,"name":1684},"local-communities",[1662],"local communities",{"_key":1686,"_type":1654,"depts":1687,"key":1686,"name":1686},"analysts",[1666],{"_key":1689,"_type":1654,"depts":1690,"key":1689,"name":1689},"partners",[1657,1656],{"_key":1692,"_type":1654,"depts":1693,"key":1692,"name":1692},"politicians",[1662],{"_key":1695,"_type":1654,"depts":1696,"key":1695,"name":1697},"ngos",[1662],"NGOs",{"_key":1699,"_type":1654,"depts":1700,"key":1699,"name":1701},"former-employees",[1661],"former employees",{"_key":1703,"_type":1654,"depts":1704,"key":1703,"name":1703},"prospects",[1656,1657],{"_key":1706,"_type":1654,"depts":1707,"key":1706,"name":1706},"unions",[1661],{"_key":1709,"_type":1654,"depts":1710,"key":1709,"name":1709},"banks",[1666],{"_key":1712,"_type":1654,"depts":1713,"key":1712,"name":1712},"neighbours",[1662],{"_key":1715,"_type":1654,"depts":1716,"key":1715,"name":1715},"influencers",[1656],{"_key":1718,"_type":1654,"depts":1719,"key":1718,"name":1718},"students",[1661,1656],{"_key":1721,"_type":1654,"depts":1722,"key":1721,"name":1721},"pensioners",[1666,1662],"Everyone talks to everyone.","Every impulse fades: 50% left after two weeks, 20% after four, and that 20% stays as residue until the other colour overturns it. A fresh impulse of the same colour revives it to 100%. Where the two colours meet, the stronger one at that moment wins. Change a force, a sign or a group while it runs and that source acts again with a fresh impulse at the new level. Click any beige stakeholder to start something there; click a coloured one to see the route it took.","everyone talks to everyone","Seen by which department","Seen by",[1729,1733,1734,1735,1737,1738],{"_key":1730,"_type":1731,"key":1730,"label":1732},"all","lens","everyone",{"_key":1656,"_type":1731,"key":1656,"label":1656,"startGroup":1653},{"_key":1662,"_type":1731,"key":1662,"label":1662,"startGroup":1668},{"_key":1661,"_type":1731,"key":1661,"label":1736,"startGroup":1659},"HR",{"_key":1657,"_type":1731,"key":1657,"label":1657,"startGroup":1703},{"_key":1666,"_type":1731,"key":1666,"label":1739,"startGroup":1664},"investor relations",[1741,1742],"Your employees talk to customers. Customers talk to investors. Journalists talk to all of them, through some twenty channels or more. It is one network, and what happens travels fast, good or bad. You need to know now and that there are no walls preventing contagion.","Marketing, communications, HR and sales each see their own corner of it. Pick a department below: its stakeholders highlight and watch the pulses crossing the boundary soon. An ad, a news story, a layoff never stays in one corner. One world needs one compass that holds all.","Start contagion simulation","Simulation running",{"defaultGroup":1668,"departmentAriaLabel":1746,"forceLabel":1747,"group1AriaLabel":1748,"group2AriaLabel":1749,"insideLabel":1750,"negative":1751,"noDepartment":1752,"noGroup":1753,"outsideLabel":1754,"positive":1755,"protest":1756,"resetLabel":1757,"support":1758,"title":1759},"Department","influencing force","Stakeholder group one","Stakeholder group two","A · inside the firm","negative","no department","no stakeholder group","B · outside the firm","positive","protest","Reset","support","Contagion simulation",{"green":1761,"red":1762,"society":1624,"stakeholders":1763,"ties":1764},"green","red","stakeholders","ties",{"_createdAt":16,"_id":1625,"_rev":1766,"_system":1767,"_type":1770,"_updatedAt":1771,"ariaLabel":1772,"diagram":1773,"heading":1802,"infoBox":1803,"stageAriaLabel":1813,"steps":1814,"stepsAriaLabel":1844},"oh8MNTYIybtkroTnB9RAGL",{"base":1768},{"id":1625,"rev":1769},"a1o622ULz7GmXuIRM0dPXV","systemSection","2026-10-02T13:32:57Z","The causal system",{"breakLabel":1774,"breakLabelShort":1775,"coefficientsSub":1776,"coefficientsTitle":1777,"columnInitials":1778,"columns":1783,"controls":1788,"gateSub":1789,"gateTitle":1790,"interviewsSub":1791,"interviewsTitle":1792,"isolatedEffect":1793,"isolatedEffectShort":1794,"segmentation":1795,"segmentationShort":1796,"semFootnote":1797,"semFootnoteShort":1798,"semSub":1799,"semTitle":1800,"waitingRoom":1801},"STRUCTURAL BREAK · RE-ESTIMATED","BREAK · RE-ESTIMATED","WHAT MOVED BEHAVIOUR?","CAUSAL COEFFICIENTS",[1779,1780,1781,1782],"F","B","E","H",[1784,1785,1786,1787],"FORCES","BELIEFS","EVALUATIONS","BEHAVIOUR","CONTROLS","DOES IT SURVIVE?","THE GATE","WHO BELIEVES WHAT, TODAY?","DAILY INTERVIEWS","THE ISOLATED EFFECT","ISOLATED EFFECT","SEGMENTATION · PROFILING","STAKEHOLDER PROFILING","EVERY LINK ESTIMATED AT ONCE · ONE MODEL PER STAKEHOLDER GROUP","ONE MODEL PER STAKEHOLDER GROUP","WHAT DRIVES WHAT, THROUGH WHAT?","SEM","THE WAITING ROOM","The causal system.",{"_type":28,"heading":1804,"paragraphs":1805,"startMinimised":25,"tab":1812},"The causal model.",[1806,1808,1810],{"_key":32,"_type":33,"text":1807},"The engine that turns daily interviews into causal coefficients: which force moved behaviour, and by how much.",{"_key":37,"_type":33,"text":1809},"Correlation shows who changed. Only a cause shows what changed them, and a cause is what you can act on.",{"_key":41,"_type":33,"text":1811},"Each respondent who saw an event is matched to a twin who did not; the difference is the effect. All forces are estimated together, tested with eight controls, re-estimated at every structural break, and only what survives is published.","the causal model","Pipeline: daily interviews are matched into twins; the isolated effect enters a structural equation model that links forces, beliefs, evaluations and behaviour per stakeholder group; eight controls test every effect, structural breaks trigger re-estimation, and only what survives is published as a causal coefficient.",[1815,1820,1824,1828,1832,1836,1840],{"_key":32,"_type":1816,"title":1817,"what":1818,"why":1819},"step","Ask, every day","Fresh interviews arrive daily. Every arrival waits until it is profiled.","Causes only show up in what changes.",{"_key":37,"_type":1816,"title":1821,"what":1822,"why":1823},"Find the twin","Each respondent who saw the event is matched to a near-identical one who did not.","The twin is the control. Without it you see who changed, not what changed them.",{"_key":41,"_type":1816,"title":1825,"what":1826,"why":1827},"Isolate the effect","The difference between the twins is the effect of the event, everything else held equal.","This is the step that turns a correlation into a cause.",{"_key":213,"_type":1816,"title":1829,"what":1830,"why":1831},"Model the whole system","Forces, beliefs, evaluations and behaviour are estimated together, every link at once, per stakeholder group.","Each signal, each impact, each channel has a relative impact on behaviour in combination with all other forces.",{"_key":254,"_type":1816,"title":1833,"what":1834,"why":1835},"Test before you trust","Eight controls order the gate. An effect that fails one is killed on the line.","What reaches you has survived the same tests a journal would apply.",{"_key":290,"_type":1816,"title":1837,"what":1838,"why":1839},"Watch for the break","When the world shifts, a structural break is detected and the model is re-estimated from that day.","It is important to distinguish noise from a real shift based upon science.",{"_key":326,"_type":1816,"title":1841,"what":1842,"why":1843},"Publish what survived","Only tested, current effects become causal coefficients: what moved behaviour, and by how much.","This is what you act on: the significant pull of each force, not its position.","The causal system, step by step",1790965059912]